AerCap Holdings (AER) shares moved modestly higher this week, building on a steady climb over the past month. The company’s year-to-date performance now exceeds 28%, reflecting ongoing interest from investors tracking capital goods stocks.

AerCap’s momentum has been gradually gathering steam, with its share price pushing higher this year as a result of resilient demand for aircraft leasing and sector stability. The company’s 1-year total shareholder return of 35.5% highlights growing investor confidence, while its longer-term gains remain even more impressive.

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With such a strong run and shares trading near analyst targets, are investors overlooking deeper value? Or has AerCap’s growth story already been fully priced in, leaving little room for a new buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.9% Undervalued

At $124.23 per share, AerCap Holdings is currently trading just below the fair value estimate of $132. Analysts’ consensus highlights how a blend of industry tailwinds and company-specific moves informs this valuation, setting the stage for crucial underlying drivers.

"Sustained supply chain constraints and OEM production delays are keeping aircraft and engine supply tight. This is pushing lease rates higher and boosting asset values, thereby expanding AerCap's net margins and supporting gains on asset sales."

Want to know why the future value of AerCap relies so much on global demand and shrinking margins? The narrative is built around bold profitability shifts, a changing cash flow outlook, and a market multiple usually reserved for growth companies. Find out what surprising forecasts and key assumptions push this price target higher than the current market.

Result: Fair Value of $132 (UNDERVALUED)

However, rapid aircraft deliveries or key customer bankruptcies could pressure lease rates and profitability. This could challenge AerCap’s positive outlook in the coming years.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper, it’s easy to analyze the data and craft your own perspective. Get started in under three minutes with our Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.