What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating American Electric Power Company (NASDAQ:AEP), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on American Electric Power Company is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.051 = US$4.6b ÷ (US$103b - US$13b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

Therefore, American Electric Power Company has an ROCE of 5.1%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 4.9%.

In the above chart we have measured American Electric Power Company's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering American Electric Power Company for free.

What Can We Tell From American Electric Power Company's ROCE Trend?

There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at American Electric Power Company. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 5.1% and the business has deployed 37% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

The Bottom Line

As we've seen above, American Electric Power Company's returns on capital haven't increased but it is reinvesting in the business. Since the stock has gained an impressive 77% over the last five years, investors must think there's better things to come. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.