https://mingchikuo.craft.me/yV6zx9jgzMGiLj

I previously shared my prediction that Himax might be a potential supplier for TSMC. My latest supply chain survey indicates that TSMC's COUPE (silicon photonics) development and ecosystem visibility have improved markedly. Furthermore, it's confirmed that Himax is the exclusive supplier of micro-lens arrays for the first and second generations of COUPE FAUs. Below are more updates and details.

Summary & Conclusions:

1.

Thanks to COUPE, Himax is poised for robust expansion over the next few years. I estimate Himax revenue (USD) to reach approximately $1.16B, $1.42B, and $2.4B in 2026–2028, respectively (vs. the consensus of $1.11B for 2026), and EPS around $1.00, $1.60, and $3.40 (vs. the consensus of $0.80 for 2026).

2.

The first COUPE generation is already fully developed and undergoing mass production validation. Second-generation mass production validation should begin in 1H26.

3.

TSMC's earnings call and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's statements may seem contradictory, but both are fundamentally positive about COUPE's.

4.

Himax is the exclusive micro-lens array supplier for the first and second COUPE generations. A second supplier is unlikely to emerge before the third generation at the earliest.

5.

In the next six months, several events could further boost market visibility for COUPE/silicon photonics.