It's shaping up to be a tough period for MeiraGTx Holdings plc (NASDAQ:MGTX), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 94% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.62. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MeiraGTx Holdings after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MeiraGTx Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$137.3m in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 401% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 60% to US$0.84. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$154.1m and losses of US$0.28 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$28.57, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MeiraGTx Holdings analyst has a price target of US$50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that MeiraGTx Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 263% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MeiraGTx Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded MeiraGTx Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple MeiraGTx Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with MeiraGTx Holdings (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.