Last week, you might have seen that Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (NYSE:ABG) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to US$225 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$18b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 11% to hit US$25.13 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Asbury Automotive Group are now predicting revenues of US$19.5b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.1% to US$27.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$19.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$27.94 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$253, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Asbury Automotive Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$297 and the most bearish at US$230 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Asbury Automotive Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Asbury Automotive Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Asbury Automotive Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$253, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Asbury Automotive Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.