ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) recently outlined its long term sales outlook at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, linking projected net sales above US$1b by 2025 and about US$1.7b by 2028 to its neurology portfolio.

The recent J.P. Morgan update, together with upcoming events like the DAYBUE STIX launch and the Biotech Showcase presentation in San Francisco, comes after a 24.4% 90 day share price return and a 47.9% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building despite a softer past month.

If ACADIA’s neurology story has your attention, this could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with other healthcare stocks that might fit a similar long term thesis.

With ACADIA sharing ambitious sales goals, a recent 1 year total return of 47.9% and the stock trading at a discount to the average analyst price target, investors may wonder whether there is still a buying opportunity here or whether the market is already pricing in that growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 15.4% Undervalued

Against ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' last close at US$25.99, the most followed narrative sets a fair value at US$30.74, framing the current price as a discount.

ACADIA's pipeline momentum, with 9 disclosed programs and multiple late-stage clinical readouts expected by 2027, positions the company to significantly diversify its revenue streams, reducing risk from single-product dependence and providing potential for margin expansion as new products are launched.

Curious how an updated growth path, slightly lower margin outlook, and a higher future P/E multiple still add up to upside potential? The full narrative lays out the cash flow roadmap underpinning that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $30.74 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story still runs into real friction if pricing pressure intensifies around NUPLAZID, or if setbacks across the 9 program pipeline push costs higher and delay expectations.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view or prefer to run the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh, data driven story in a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If ACADIA is already on your radar, do not stop there, the screener can quickly surface fresh ideas that deserve a place on your watchlist too.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.