Greif (NYSE:GEF) has quietly caught the attention of investors after a spell of mixed performance, sparking questions about what comes next for the packaging manufacturer. With no blockbuster news or headline-making developments in recent weeks, the stock’s recent moves might seem uneventful on the surface. For investors weighing buying, selling, or holding, times like these can often be informative. Sometimes, a lack of big events makes the underlying fundamentals stand out even more.

This year, Greif’s share price has managed a positive return, modestly outpacing the start of the year, even as the company reported a drop in annual revenue but a meaningful bump in net income. Over the past month, shares have slipped, and returns remain largely flat for the past quarter, yet the five-year track record still stands strong. From quarter to quarter, Greif’s price action lacks major momentum or excessive volatility. This pattern can be both comforting and frustrating, depending on your view of market risk and opportunity.

The question now is whether this steady performance hints at a buying opportunity for value-focused investors, or if the market already expects all of Greif’s potential future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.6% Undervalued

The prevailing narrative suggests Greif is undervalued, with analysts seeing significant upside based on its projected future earnings, operational efficiencies, and sector positioning.

"The company's investment and expansion in polymer-based packaging (with strong end-market demand in agrochemicals, pharma, food & beverage, and flavor & fragrance) directly positions Greif to benefit from the ongoing expansion of global manufacturing, logistics, and e-commerce. This supports sustainable top-line revenue growth."

What is fueling this impressive upside? The story hinges on bold financial bets: margin expansion, profit growth, and a transformation in what drives revenue. Want to see which key forecasts are tipping the scales upward? Take a closer look at the full narrative for the forecasted numbers that are lifting Greif’s valuation above the crowd.

Result: Fair Value of $75.8 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, uncertainty remains because weaker demand in key segments and increased exposure to cyclical markets could challenge Greif’s path to stronger, sustainable growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Greif narrative.

Another View: A Different Take on Valuation

While the first narrative leans on forecasts and future growth to see Greif as undervalued, our DCF model paints a different picture. The model suggests the shares could be offering even greater value than current predictions imply. Which methodology do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Greif to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to dive into your own analysis, you can put together your own assessment in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.