Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) is back in the spotlight after full year 2025 results showed a shift from a large prior year loss to a profit, helped by wildfire related settlements and regulatory approvals.

The earnings turnaround, wildfire settlement progress and approval of the wildfire safety plan seem to have shifted sentiment, with a 90 day share price return of 42.91% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 54.11%. However, longer term total shareholder returns over 3 and 5 years remain deeply negative, which suggests momentum has picked up recently from a low base.

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The share price has bounced hard from crisis lows and HE now trades above the average analyst price target. Is the market overconfident after the earnings reset, or is there still a genuine mispriced recovery story here?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.3% Overvalued

Hawaiian Electric Industries closed at $16.12, while the most followed narrative puts fair value at $12.00, using a single, consistent valuation framework to get there.

Recent Hawaii legislation enabling wildfire liability caps, state funding for settlements, and securitization of wildfire safety investments significantly reduces legal and financial risk exposure while supporting large-scale infrastructure upgrades, which is likely to stabilize earnings and improve net margins.

Curious how that legal reset translates into a lower fair value than today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue growth, margin repair and a specific earnings multiple to justify its view. It is all laid out in one cohesive set of assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $12.00 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still active risks, including ongoing wildfire-related litigation and the need to fund high settlement and grid resilience costs, which could put pressure on earnings and cash flow.

Another Angle On Valuation

Our SWS DCF model presents a very different perspective compared with the $12.00 fair value narrative. On this cash flow view, Hawaiian Electric Industries at $16.12 is priced well above an estimated value of $1.26, which indicates a wide margin of valuation risk if optimistic assumptions do not materialize. How comfortable are you with that gap?

Next Steps

Does this mix of recovery and risk leave you unsure which way to lean? Act while the details are fresh, review the full picture, and weigh up 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.