Recent performance snapshot

MKS (MKSI) has attracted fresh attention after a sharp recent run, with the stock up about 29% over the past month and roughly 75% in the past 3 months.

That surge has come after a strong run over the past year, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 142.22%. The latest share price of US$249.42 still saw a 1 day decline of 3.72%, hinting at some near term profit taking after a powerful upswing.

If this kind of momentum in semiconductors has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan a wider field of chip related names using our 34 AI infrastructure stocks as a starting point.

With the shares now trading above the average analyst price target and the modeled intrinsic value, investors need to consider whether MKS is already expensive or if the recent rally still leaves room for additional growth to be priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.9% Overvalued

The most followed narrative pegs MKS' fair value at about $180.92, well below the last close of $249.42. This sets up a clear valuation gap to unpack.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $122.308 for MKS based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $160.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $92.0.

Want to see why this narrative still arrives at a higher fair value than that consensus range? The story leans heavily on sustained earnings growth, margin expansion, and a future profit multiple that assumes MKS earns a premium versus many peers. Curious which specific revenue path and profitability targets need to line up to support that view? The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $180.92 (OVERVALUED)

However, those assumptions lean heavily on cyclical semiconductor demand and high leverage, so any softer wafer equipment spending or balance sheet pressure could quickly challenge this fair value story.

Build Your Own MKS Narrative

If your view on MKS is different, or you prefer to lean on your own work, you can quickly build a data driven thesis in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your MKS research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.