NiSource (NI) just landed in the spotlight after Jefferies shifted its rating from "Buy" to "Hold," flagging regulatory uncertainty in Indiana as a significant risk factor. The change mostly stems from the recent departure of key utility commissioners, which has cast a shadow over the company’s strategic direction and its anticipated Genco spinoff. This is the kind of development that can make even long-term investors reconsider how much near-term risk they are willing to tolerate with NiSource stock. Looking at the past year, NiSource’s share price has moved up an impressive 25%, with momentum continuing into this year, as it gained another 12% year-to-date. While the past month saw a slight pullback, the longer-term uptrend remains in place. All this comes against a backdrop of annual revenue and net income growth, plus positive sentiment from most brokerages despite the recent downgrade. So after this surge, is the current price a window of opportunity for investors, or are markets already factoring in all the company’s future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed valuation narrative, NiSource is trading at a discount to its estimated fair value. Based on analysts' models, the current share price offers roughly 7% upside from today's levels.

Major gas and electric infrastructure modernization initiatives, including AI-driven operational efficiency programs and digital asset management, are reducing operating costs and leak risk. These measures could expand net margins over time.

Craving the real story behind NiSource’s potential? The narrative’s fair value relies on bold growth forecasts, margin gains, and an earnings multiple that would turn heads in any utility market. Want to know the blueprint fueling that bullish target? Explore the details and see which financial levers could reshape how investors view NiSource’s upside.

Result: Fair Value of $43.91 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower-than-expected regulatory approvals and a long-term shift away from natural gas could present challenges to the bullish outlook for NiSource’s growth prospects.

Find out about the key risks to this NiSource narrative.

Another View: What Do Different Models Say?

While the analyst consensus sees upside, our DCF model tells a different story. It suggests NiSource is trading above its estimated fair value based on projected future cash flows. Does the market see something the models do not?

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding NiSource to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own NiSource Narrative

Investors who want to challenge these assumptions or carve their own path can dive into the data and craft a personal NiSource story in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NiSource research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.