Recent performance snapshot

Penske Automotive Group (PAG) has been under some pressure recently, with the stock showing negative returns over the past week, month, and past 3 months, while still sitting on a small gain year to date.

Over longer horizons, performance looks different, with total returns of 2.1% over the past year, 37.9% over 3 years, and roughly a doubling over 5 years.

At a share price of $159.36, Penske Automotive Group has seen recent pressure, with short term share price returns in the low single digit negative range, while multi year total shareholder returns remain firmly positive. This suggests that momentum has cooled after a strong run.

If Penske has you thinking about opportunities across autos, it could be a good moment to scan the wider group of auto manufacturers for other ideas on your radar.

With Penske trading at $159.36, carrying a solid multi year return record, positive revenue and net income growth, and a value score of 4, the question is whether this is still an opportunity or if markets already price in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.9% Undervalued

With Penske Automotive Group last closing at $159.36 against a most-followed fair value estimate of $180.89, the narrative sees upside that the recent pullback does not reflect, and it leans heavily on recurring service strength and capital returns to justify that gap.

Record growth in service and parts revenue (+7%) and gross profit (+9%) is being driven by the aging vehicle fleet (average age now over 6 years), increased vehicle complexity, and higher warranty and customer-pay work. This creates durable, recurring revenue streams and supports expanding net margins as the average vehicle age rises in both the U.S. and Europe.

Want to see how recurring service income, modest growth expectations, and a higher future earnings multiple all tie together into that valuation gap? The narrative connects revenue, margins, and buybacks in a way that turns small changes in assumptions into a very different long term value story.

Result: Fair Value of $180.89 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on luxury demand and dealer economics holding up, while EV shifts and direct to consumer models could squeeze margins and undercut the service-driven story.

Build Your Own Penske Automotive Group Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Penske Automotive Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.