EMBARK data and what it means for Sarepta shares

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) recently reported positive three year functional results from its Phase 3 EMBARK study of Elevidys in ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy patients, with sustained motor function benefits and no new safety concerns reported.

Despite the encouraging EMBARK update, Sarepta Therapeutics’ recent share price performance has been weak, with a 7 day share price return of 8.53% and a year to date share price return decline of 4.83%. Meanwhile, the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 82.22% and 3 year total shareholder return decline of 83.21% highlight how much sentiment has cooled, even after a 90 day share price return of 8.62% suggests some short term momentum is trying to rebuild.

If this kind of news driven move has you thinking about other opportunities in the sector, it could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks for fresh ideas.

With Elevidys delivering encouraging three year data, but Sarepta shares still carrying steep 1 year and 3 year total return declines, is the current price a reset that leaves potential upside on the table, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts Sarepta Therapeutics' fair value at $20.61, slightly above the last close of $20.28, and builds a detailed case around Elevidys, future earnings and risk.

The scheduled dissemination of additional safety and efficacy data for ELEVIDYS, and anticipated label updates for new patient populations, provides clear pathways to further demonstrate the therapy’s positive risk-benefit, likely enhancing long-term revenue drivers.

Curious how a company with current losses is modeled to reach meaningful profitability, with shrinking revenue but rising margins, and still earn a higher future earnings multiple than many peers? The narrative walks through those moving parts step by step and then applies a single discount rate to bring it all back to today's value.

Result: Fair Value of $20.61 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside case still depends on Elevidys avoiding further serious safety setbacks and on gene therapy access issues not tightening after moves such as New York’s Medicaid pause.

Build Your Own Sarepta Therapeutics Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a tailored view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sarepta Therapeutics research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.