The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

By Una Galani

HONG KONG, April 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Within days of launching a global trade war, Donald Trump boasted his counterpart in Vietnam was ready to reduce tariffs to zero. But if officials from Hanoi visiting the United States this week are unable to secure a delay or substantial reduction to the U.S. president's announced 46% levy on the Southeast Asian economy's exports, the country home to 101 million people will endure epic disruption, perhaps more so than anywhere else in the world.

That's because Vietnam sends 29% of its exports, including electronics, textiles and shoes made for iPhone-maker Apple AAPL.O, Nike NKE.N, and Adidas ADSGn.DE, to the U.S. Nearly 9% of its GDP is exposed to the world's largest economy, more than three times the level for China, Nomura estimates. While Trump's administration is sending mixed signals on the scope for countries to negotiate, Hanoi will struggle to meaningfully reduce its $123 billion trade surplus with the U.S. even if state firms promise to purchase liquefied natural gas or Boeing BA.N airplanes.

There may be other ways to please the real estate magnate, of course. The government could speed clearances for the Trump Organization which is eyeing multibillion dollar projects including hotels in Vietnam, for example. Earlier this month, Hanoi granted permission for Trump advisor Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch its satellite Starlink services in the country on a trial basis.

Ultimately, a meaningful trade reprieve for Vietnam would require a massive rowback from Trump for not very much in return. Even if the U.S. were to halve the tariff due to go into effect on April 9, manufacturing in Vietnam would be largely unfeasible unless it significantly weakens its currency.

Negative perceptions will stick too. The eye-watering tariff on the country, though numerically calculated, reinforces fears that Trump is targeting Vietnam to contain China. Goods from the People's Republic, now facing U.S. levies of at least 54% are stopping in Southeast Asia with limited value-added before heading to American consumers. That will keep Vietnam in Trump's firing line: the president's America First Trade Policy, published on his first day in office, also called out such trade circumvention.

Trump and his predecessor wanted an alternative to China's manufacturing powerhouse and Vietnam emerged as one. Exports and foreign direct investment fuelled its economic boom but analysts at Goldman Sachs have now slashed the country's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 5.6%, from 6.8%, and warn of a larger negative impact if the tariffs are permanent. Whatever happens next Vietnam's fortunes are set to alter for the worse.

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CONTEXT NEWS

U.S. President Donald Trump and Vietnam's leader To Lam agreed on April 4 to discuss a deal to remove tariffs. Vietnam faces a 46% tariff on its exports to the United States as part of Trump’s sweeping overhaul of his country's terms of global trade announced on April 2.

"Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S.", Trump wrote on his Truth social platform.

Lam confirmed the call and the pledge to cut tariffs on U.S. goods. "At the same time (Lam) proposed that the U.S. apply similar tax rates to goods imported from Vietnam," read a report on Vietnam's government portal published shortly after Trump's post.

Vietnam's gross domestic product rose 6.93% in the first three months from the same period last year, slowing from 7.55% in the quarter ending in December, the National Statistics Office said in a report on April 6.

(Editing by Robyn Mak and Ujjaini Dutta)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on GALANI/ una.galani@thomsonreuters.com))