Feb 14 (Reuters) - There are already signs that the NOK/SEK cross might be headed higher but, as the world gets to grips with increasing protectionism, Norway's advantage over its neighbour in terms of export exposure might underpin further NOK gains.

The Viking cross has been in downtrend since March 2022 and, even after a near 15% depreciation in the NOK, there is room for NOK/SEK to go lower. However, in the shorter-term there might be scope for the NOK to reverse the more recent, since November 2024, 4.8% decline from 0.9999.

In recent weeks NOK/SEK has been capped, on a closing basis, by the 100-week moving average and the line, which is backed up by the weekly Ichimoku cloud top, could present a problem for the NOK.

The daily chart is showing potential for a Friday bullish engulfing candle. Engulfing signals can warn of a direction change and show up when a small real body (shaded area between the high and low) is completely engulfed by the following candle's real body.

The bullish daily action has led to a doji candle on the weekly chart, again a warning of a wind change or a period of consolidation.

Norway's crown still has work to do to get back onside but more favourable charts and Sweden's greater sensitivity to a trade war and global growth uncertainty could help underpin NOK/SEK.

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(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((peter.stoneham@thomsonreuters.com))