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BUZZ-COMMENT-US recap: EUR/USD drop on hot US jobs, Fed hawks fleeting pre-CPI
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April 5 (Reuters) - Dollar gains made after Friday's far stronger than forecast U.S. employment data were trimmed despite more Fed speakers leaning away from mid-year or perhaps even any rate cuts this year, amid consolidation before Wednesday's U.S. CPI report and in case the BoJ intervenes and slams USD/JPY, even if temporarily.
The retreat from the post-payrolls dollar rally could also be tied to the rebound in U.S. stocks trimming safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency.
EUR/USD recovered from its 1.07915 Friday low on EBS to just about unchanged, despite 2-year Bund-Treasury yields spreads getting 5bp more negative.
There's a school of thought that delayed or diminished Fed easing versus steady ECB rate cut pricing could be a relative drag on the U.S. economy versus the euro zone's, though so far only southern, smaller euro zone economies are generating much growth against U.S. outperformance.
An ECB cut in June is fully priced in and apparently condoned by recent ECB commentary. And 86bp of rate cuts are priced in by year-end, versus 68bp by the Fed, with a June cut in the U.S. seen as just at 55% probability.
USD/JPY rose 0.13% after shaking off an earlier dip below 151 on BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hints that yen weakness could be a factor for monetary policy, suggesting rates could be raised sooner if the soft currency increases imported cost inflation.
But the bigger worry for USD/JPY longs looking for the stubborn 152 cap to be cleared is actual rather than the ongoing rhetorical FX intervention. The lack of a 152 breakout after the U.S. jobs beat and further Fed hawkishness is a caution for recent longs. But if Treasury yields make new 2024 highs after Wednesday's CPI report, 152 will be in bulls' crosshairs.
Sterling fell 0.06%, though was well off Friday's 1.2571 low. A June BoE rate cut is priced only modestly higher than one from the Fed, with the year-end rate cut totals about even.
USD/CAD rose 0.3% in the wake of disappointing Canadian jobs data, initially hitting its highest since November. Swaps price in 20bp of a June BoC rate cut and 75bp by year-end.
For more click on FXBUZ
(Editing by Burton Frierson
Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
((Randolph.donney@thomsonreuters.com))


