• CareDx recently issued preliminary, unaudited guidance for fourth quarter and full year 2025, projecting approximately US$108 million in Q4 revenue and about US$380 million for the year, both reflecting solid year-over-year increases.
• This guidance, alongside CareDx’s ongoing Transplant+ innovation efforts, highlights how growing demand across testing, digital solutions, and products is reinforcing its transplant-focused business model.
• We’ll now examine how this stronger-than-expected 2025 revenue outlook may influence CareDx’s existing investment narrative and expectations for its growth drivers.

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CareDx Investment Narrative Recap

To own CareDx, you need to believe in the long term value of its transplant focused testing, digital tools, and products, and its ability to manage reimbursement and execution risks. The stronger than expected 2025 revenue guidance supports the near term growth story, but does not remove the key risk around potential Medicare and LCD related pressures on AlloSure and HeartCare reimbursement, which could still weigh on margins even if top line momentum holds.

The new collaboration with 10x Genomics on ImmuneScape is particularly relevant here because it deepens CareDx’s transplant biology toolkit in ways that could support future diagnostic offerings and sustain demand across its testing portfolio. While this research focused effort sits further out on the timeline than the 2025 guidance, it connects directly to the core catalyst of expanding and defending CareDx’s transplant testing franchise against regulatory and payer uncertainty.

However, investors should also be aware that any future introduction of bundled payments for surveillance testing could...

CareDx's narrative projects $485.8 million revenue and $78.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 12.5% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $19.9 million earnings increase from $58.1 million today.

Uncover how CareDx's forecasts yield a $23.00 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for CareDx span from about US$23 to nearly US$200 per share, showing just how far apart individual views can be. Against this spread, the latest revenue guidance and ongoing reimbursement risk around key tests give you strong reasons to compare several perspectives before deciding how this business might perform.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on CareDx - why the stock might be worth over 9x more than the current price!

Build Your Own CareDx Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your CareDx research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free CareDx research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate CareDx's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.