It's been a good week for Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 7.3% to US$63.92. Revenues of US$22b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.72, missing estimates by 7.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Carrier Global's 18 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$22.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 38% to US$2.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$22.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.58 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$72.18 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Carrier Global at US$90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$55.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Carrier Global shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Carrier Global's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 3.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Carrier Global.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Carrier Global going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.