CEE MARKETS-Zloty inches back towards seven-month high, other currencies steady

P10, INC. +0.10%
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. -1.64%
CRONA CORP 0.00%

P10, INC.

PX

10.09

+0.10%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS

892.18

-1.64%

CRONA CORP

CCCP

0.10

0.00%

- The Polish zloty edged back towards a seven-month high on Monday and other central European currencies steadied after falling from peaks, as markets awaited clues on the outlook for Czech and Hungarian interest rates.

Globally, investors were focused on upcoming U.S. economic data this week, keeping trade cautious and seeking direction.

In central Europe, analysts expect the central banks of the Czech Republic and Hungary to keep rates on hold but will be scrutinising policymakers' comments for any indication of how long they might keep their easing cycles on pause.

Polish inflation data on Monday was revised a touch higher. Poland's central bank has been cutting rates this year - causing the zloty to underperform peers as policy stays on hold elsewhere in the region - but has signalled limited scope for further moves ahead.

The zloty EURPLN= inched up 0.2% to 4.2195 per euro on Monday, testing a high of 4.218 seen at the end of November. A break beyond that high would put the zloty at its strongest levels since early April.

"The EUR/PLN exchange rate has been near this level for some time, so an improvement in sentiment could see it broken," Millennium Bank said.


RATES ON HOLD

Stock markets edged higher, with Warsaw .WIG20 outperforming and gaining 1.7%. Polish footwear and fashion retailer CCC's CCCP.WA shares jumped nearly 8% after two shareholders submitted requests for the company to run share buybacks.

Among currencies, the Hungarian forint and Czech crown were a touch stronger after falling from more than two-year highs since early December.

A Reuters poll on Friday showed analysts expect the Hungarian central bank to leave rates unchanged for a 15th straight month when it meets on Tuesday. The median forecast in the survey projects 50 basis points of rate easing by the end of next year.

The forint EURHUF= was up a tad at 385.35 at 0957 GMT.

"While sequential headline and core inflation has been consistently below target for more than six months and HUF strength implies that further downside surprises to inflation are likely in the coming months, we expect (Hungary's) MNB to maintain a relatively cautious stance for now," Goldman Sachs said.

The Czech crown EURCZK= traded a touch higher at 24.288 per euro, off a peak of 24.1 hit at the start of the month.

The Czech central bank, which meets on Thursday, last cut rates in May and some analysts say they could remain unchanged for all of 2026.



CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1057 CET



CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.2880

24.2950

+0.03%

+3.79%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

385.3500

385.6000

+0.06%

+6.77%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2195

4.2285

+0.21%

+1.36%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0900

5.0920

+0.04%

-2.23%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2800

117.3800

+0.09%

-0.28%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET



STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2576.79

2568.9400

+0.31%

+46.39%

Budapest

.BUX

109853.87

109607.58

+0.22%

+38.48%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3131.27

3079.15

+1.69%

+42.85%

Bucharest

.BETI

23851.98

23939.66

-0.37%

+42.65%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5140

-0.0480

+136bps

-4bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.1450

-0.0010

+168bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.6550

-0.0430

+181bps

-2bps







Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.0420

0.0050

+189bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.6650

0.0150

+220bps

+3bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3000

0.0000

+246bps

+2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.58

3.62

3.65

3.54

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.75

3.61

3.58

4.06

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices



(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Krisztina Than in Budapest, Pawel Florkiewicz and Karol Badohal in Warsaw
Editing by Gareth Jones)

((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))

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