Centrus Energy (LEU) drew fresh investor attention after the U.S. Department of Energy awarded a $900 million task order to expand its Piketon, Ohio enrichment facility for commercial-scale HALEU production.

The $900 million task order lands after a very strong run, with a 24.2% 1 month share price return and a 13.49% year to date share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of more than 3x highlights how much sentiment has shifted around Centrus Energy and its role in supplying enriched uranium.

If this kind of government backed project has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other aerospace and defense stocks that are tied to long term national security themes.

After a 1 year total return of more than 3x and a last close of US$309.26, with shares now trading above the average analyst target of US$294.11 and an implied intrinsic premium of about 20%, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.6% Overvalued

The most followed narrative puts Centrus Energy's fair value at about US$279.73, below the last close of US$309.26. This difference creates a valuation gap for investors to consider.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $229.3 for Centrus Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $310.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $108.0.

Want to see how steady revenue growth, changing profit margins and a punchy future earnings multiple all feed into that fair value? The full narrative lays out the assumptions step by step and shows how those forecasts line up with the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of $279.73 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still clear risks, including slower than expected utility contracting and faster growth in renewables and storage that could cap long term nuclear fuel demand.

Build Your Own Centrus Energy Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a full Centrus view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Centrus Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Centrus has sharpened your interest, do not stop here, your next strong idea might be sitting in plain sight if you keep turning over a few more stones.

• Target fresh growth stories early by scanning these 3527 penny stocks with strong financials that already show solid financial foundations instead of relying on hype alone.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.