• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of about US$4.31 billion with a net loss of US$243 million, and a full-year 2025 net loss of US$1.48 billion on US$18.61 billion of sales, while completing a US$124.22 million share repurchase program initiated in April 2024.
• Management attributed the weak year to soft automotive demand, an unfavorable slab contract, and pressures in Canada, while pointing to cost cuts, asset sales, new automotive contracts, and a potential POSCO partnership as key levers for improving performance in 2026.
• We’ll now examine how this combination of sizable full-year losses and management’s planned cost and contract changes could reshape Cleveland-Cliffs’ investment narrative.

The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Terbium and there are only 32 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.

Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cleveland-Cliffs today, you have to believe that its auto-focused, tariff-supported steel model can translate recent contract wins, cost cuts, and asset sales into a path back to profitability. The latest results underline the tension between that narrative and reality: a US$1.48 billion full-year loss and a sharp share-price drop keep 2026 execution as the key near-term catalyst, while persistent margin pressure and high capital needs remain the biggest risk.

Among recent developments, the prospective POSCO partnership stands out. Management is treating it as a top priority for 2026, framing it alongside new automotive contracts and the exit from an unfavorable slab deal as core levers for lifting EBITDA from the 2025 trough. For investors watching whether Cliffs’ integrated footprint can still earn its keep, the details and timing of any POSCO agreement sit right at the heart of the turnaround story.

Yet beneath this potential progress, the rising cost burden and aging asset base are pressures investors should be aware of, particularly if optimization benefits start to...

Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects $22.5 billion revenue and $590.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.3 billion earnings increase from -$1.7 billion today.

Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $13.44 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The lowest analysts tell a much tougher story than consensus, assuming only about 4.9 percent annual revenue growth and US$661 million of earnings by 2028, and the fresh 2025 loss plus stalled margins may prompt you to rethink whether that more pessimistic view of rising costs and asset strain is closer to reality or still too harsh.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Cleveland-Cliffs Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Cleveland-Cliffs research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs' overall financial health at a glance.

Interested In Other Possibilities?

Markets shift fast. These stocks won't stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:

• Explore 23 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.
• AI is about to change healthcare. These 25 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 87 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.