Corning (GLW) is back in focus after securing a supply agreement with Meta valued at up to US$6b for fiber optic cables serving AI data centers, highlighting its Optical Communications business.

The Meta agreement has arrived at a time when sentiment around Corning has already been strong, with a 51.23% 30 day share price return and a very large 305.35% 3 year total shareholder return pointing to strong momentum rather than a short term spike.

If Corning’s AI data center exposure has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in the broader AI infrastructure space via our 34 AI infrastructure stocks.

With Corning’s shares up 61.36% over 90 days and 3 year total returns at 305.35%, the key question now is whether the current price already reflects future AI data center growth, or if there is still a buying opportunity.

Most Popular Narrative: 16% Overvalued

Corning’s latest fair value estimate of $114.46 sits below the recent $132.90 share price, which puts extra attention on what is driving that gap.

The company sees substantial growth in Optical Communications, particularly in innovations for Gen AI data centers, which are expected to drive incremental revenue and accelerate operating margin improvements toward 20% by the end of 2026.

Corning's significant U.S. manufacturing footprint provides a competitive edge and is expected to attract commercial agreements, enhancing sales and net margins despite tariff implications.

Curious how a big AI data center push, richer margins, and a premium future earnings multiple all fit into one story? The fair value hinges on how those moving parts play out across revenue, profitability and the cash flows discounted at 8.62%. The full narrative lays out the path, the timing, and the earnings power that would need to show up to back today’s price against that $114.46 estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $114.46 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are still real pressure points, including any slowdown in Gen AI or solar demand, as well as ongoing tariff risks tied to U.S. and China tensions.

Build Your Own Corning Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view or prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can pull the data, stress test your assumptions and build a version of the story that fits your own process in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Corning research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Corning has sharpened your focus on where capital might work hardest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with ideas that target very different return drivers.

• Target value first and see which companies our screener flags as 51 high quality undervalued stocks based on quality fundamentals and pricing that may look appealing.
• Strengthen your income stream by reviewing businesses in our 13 dividend fortresses that focus on higher yields with an emphasis on resilience.
• Prioritise capital preservation by scanning the 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores and spotting companies that score better on stability and downside risk.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.