• Cleveland-Cliffs has recently drawn attention as sector optimism builds ahead of its February 2026 earnings release, amid industry commentary about stronger demand from infrastructure, construction, and automotive customers supported by tariffs and expectations of economic recovery.
• At the same time, discussions around a potential POSCO investment, ongoing closure of lower-margin facilities, and longer-term possibilities in rare earth extraction are reshaping how investors think about Cleveland-Cliffs’ vertically integrated U.S. steel model.
• With these developments in mind, we’ll explore how a possible POSCO stake could influence Cleveland-Cliffs’ existing investment narrative and risk profile.

The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Dysprosium and there are only 38 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.

Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cleveland-Cliffs, you have to believe its vertically integrated U.S. steel model can translate sector optimism into sustainable cash generation, while managing leverage and legacy blast furnace exposure. The recent talk of a potential POSCO stake and facility closures may influence balance sheet strength and margins, but the most important near term catalyst still looks to be the February 2026 earnings release, where investors will focus on evidence of improving profitability and debt trajectory. The biggest risk remains the company’s sensitivity to policy and decarbonization pressures rather than this week’s share price move.

Among the recent announcements, the potential POSCO investment, reportedly in the 10% to 20% range, stands out as most relevant. Fresh equity capital could reinforce Cleveland-Cliffs’ balance sheet at a time when it has issued multiple higher coupon notes, while also reframing how investors view its U.S. focused steel platform ahead of the February 2026 earnings update and any future discussion of rare earth opportunities tied to its iron ore assets.

Yet while optimism has picked up, investors should be aware that heavy reliance on Section 232 tariffs and carbon intensive blast furnaces leaves Cleveland-Cliffs exposed if...

Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects $22.5 billion revenue and $590.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.8% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.3 billion earnings increase from -$1.7 billion today.

Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $12.45 fair value, a 11% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span a wide range, from about US$12.45 to US$56.79 per share, showing just how far apart individual views can be. You are seeing those opinions form against a backdrop where Cleveland-Cliffs’ fortunes are tightly linked to U.S. steel demand, policy support such as tariffs, and the impact of any POSCO investment on its balance sheet and earnings risk, so it is worth exploring several of these perspectives in detail.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Cleveland-Cliffs Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Cleveland-Cliffs research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs' overall financial health at a glance.

Searching For A Fresh Perspective?

Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:

• Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.
• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.