• On October 15, 2025, AGNC Investment Corp. announced that it has collaborated with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to launch three new fixed income indices tracking current coupon Agency mortgage-backed securities, encompassing 15- and 30-year UMBS guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.
• This move expands transparency and offers investors new tools to track performance in the mortgage-backed securities market, which is a core area of AGNC's business.
• We will explore how the ICE partnership, which introduces targeted tracking tools for Agency MBS, may influence AGNC's investment narrative.

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AGNC Investment Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in AGNC Investment Corp., you need conviction in the stability and predictability of Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and the company's ability to manage interest rate risk effectively. The recent announcement of new ICE indices provides more transparency for Agency MBS market performance, but it is unlikely to materially impact AGNC’s imminent earnings catalysts or the current primary risk from interest rate and spread volatility.

Among recent company updates, the October declaration of a $0.12 per share monthly dividend stands out, reinforcing AGNC's ongoing commitment to shareholder returns amid earnings pressure. The dividend underscores management’s focus on income as a key catalyst, especially as the market awaits the October 20 earnings release for new signals on revenue and profitability.

Yet, while transparency for Agency MBS is increasing, investors should also be aware that sudden shifts in interest rates or MBS spreads could still lead to...

AGNC Investment's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 32.3% yearly revenue growth and a $969 million earnings increase from $731.0 million today.

Uncover how AGNC Investment's forecasts yield a $5.29 fair value, a 47% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$5.29 to US$19.58 per share. Against this spectrum of views, keep in mind that ongoing volatility in interest rates and MBS spreads remains a key risk that could affect earnings or dividends, so consider how a wide range of perspectives may inform your own view on AGNC.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on AGNC Investment - why the stock might be worth as much as 96% more than the current price!

Build Your Own AGNC Investment Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AGNC Investment research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AGNC Investment research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AGNC Investment's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.