CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) stock has been getting attention lately as investors weigh fresh returns from the past month along with the company’s continued expansion in cybersecurity. With shares up 17% over the past month, some are re-examining valuation.

This latest surge is part of a bigger run, with CrowdStrike’s share price up 46% year-to-date and an impressive 64% total shareholder return over the past year. Momentum is clearly building, with recent gains suggesting that investors are growing more optimistic about its growth prospects and position in cybersecurity.

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After such rapid gains, investors may be asking whether CrowdStrike’s shares reflect fair value or if the stock still holds untapped potential. Is now the time to buy, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Overvalued

Compared to CrowdStrike’s last close of $508.61, the narrative by Tokyo puts fair value at $431.24. This suggests the current price is ahead of key growth assumptions. The following quote reveals just how ambitious the projections need to be for today’s price to make sense.

Same as Netflix, George Kurtz looks at the subscription rate by tracking ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue). Every quarter ARR grows by about 30%, actually ARR is $3.89B and the target for 01.2031 (FY2031) is $10B. Ambitious, but I think they will reach it.

Curious which bold growth assumptions justify this price? The secret lies in a sharply rising subscription trend, coupled with a high-stakes forecast for future recurring revenue. Discover which financial milestones are driving this premium valuation and what must go right to get there.

Result: Fair Value of $431.24 (OVERVALUED)

However, ongoing competition and unpredictable cybersecurity threats could challenge these growth assumptions and quickly shift CrowdStrike’s valuation narrative.

Build Your Own CrowdStrike Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can easily craft your own perspective in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your CrowdStrike Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.