For the better part of the past year, Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:OXY) has looked like the blemish on Warren Buffett's otherwise bulletproof track record.

With shares down 27% over the past 12 months and well below Buffett's average cost basis of $54.20, the Oracle of Omaha's massive $12 billion stake in the oil giant had critics wondering if this was one value bet that misfired.

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But that skepticism may be premature. OXY has quietly rebounded nearly 9% over the past month and is flashing signs of technical strength. While it’s still trading under the long-term 200-day simple moving average of $47.67, the stock has broken above its eight, 20 and 50-day simple moving averages — marking a shift to a strongly bullish trend.

Technical indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 1.06 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 61.52 point to building momentum, even as some mild selling pressure lingers.

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Technicals Turn Bullish, But Not Without Caution

Occidental's share price of $45.49 sits above its eight-day simple moving average of $45.26, its 20-day SMA of $43.14, and its 50-day SMA of $41.53.

That's a clean technical trifecta. While the stock is still below the 200-day SMA, this gap could close if the current uptrend continues. MACD signals remain bullish, and RSI at 61.52 is in healthy territory — suggesting room to run before things get overheated.

Still, the presence of mild selling pressure means investors should stay alert to volatility, especially if the rally runs too hot too fast.

Fundamentals Fuel Buffett's Conviction

Beyond charts, the long-term thesis Buffett is betting on remains intact. Occidental expects to generate $1.5 billion in incremental annual free cash flow by 2027 — even without factoring in oil price movements.

Add in its expanding carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives and potential upside from any sustained rise in crude, and the long game looks a lot more attractive than the recent headlines suggest.

Buffett isn't known for chasing price pops — he's known for getting in early and holding through the noise. And right now, that noise may just be clearing.

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