• Noble Corporation plc recently confirmed it reported its Q4 2025 results after the market closed on February 11, 2026, with analysts beforehand expecting earnings of US$0.15 per share.
• This earnings release came against a backdrop of mixed operating performance versus peers, including softer revenue trends but comparatively efficient cost management and a healthier debt profile.
• We’ll now examine how anticipation around Noble’s earnings release, and the focus on EPS and outlook, could reshape its investment narrative.

Find 51 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Noble Investment Narrative Recap

To own Noble today, you need to believe in a long-term recovery in offshore drilling that eventually rewards its leaner balance sheet and cost focus, despite recent earnings volatility. The upcoming Q4 2025 release, with the market focused on US$0.15 EPS and forward commentary, looks important mainly for near term sentiment rather than fundamentally changing the key risk of softer utilization and pricing in a still uneven rig market.

The recent US$1.3 billion batch of new contracts, including the multi year Aker BP deal for Noble GreatWhite starting in 2027, directly ties into the backlog driven catalyst many shareholders watch closely. While this strengthens longer term revenue visibility, it also underlines the near term risk that required reactivation capex and any prolonged white space before those rigs start work could weigh on margins and cash flow before the benefits fully show through.

Yet, against this constructive backdrop, investors should not overlook that near term softness in offshore demand and rising cost pressures could...

Noble's narrative projects $3.5 billion revenue and $351.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.9% yearly revenue growth and about a $42 million earnings increase from $309.0 million.

Uncover how Noble's forecasts yield a $33.60 fair value, a 20% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were far more cautious, assuming revenue around US$3.4 billion and earnings near US$180 million by 2028, compared with backlog driven optimism. This more pessimistic view sits in sharp contrast to expectations of efficiency gains and long term contracts, and Q4’s US$0.15 EPS outcome could nudge either camp to reassess how realistic those earlier assumptions still look.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Noble - why the stock might be worth as much as 93% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Noble Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Noble research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Noble research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Noble's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.