• In Q4 2025, Select Medical Holdings Corporation disclosed spending US$630,000 on lobbying related to regulations for long-term acute care hospitals, inpatient rehabilitation facilities, and outpatient rehabilitation clinics, with a particular focus on Medicare payment issues, while institutional investors showed mixed positioning and analysts recently issued positive ratings.
• This combination of targeted policy engagement and favorable analyst sentiment highlights how regulatory influence and market perceptions can materially shape expectations for Select Medical’s core post-acute care business.
• We’ll now examine how Select Medical’s intensified Medicare-focused lobbying could influence its existing investment narrative around post-acute and rehabilitation growth.

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Select Medical Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Select Medical, you need to believe its post-acute and rehabilitation platform can stay relevant despite reimbursement pressure and high leverage. The Q4 2025 US$630,000 Medicare-focused lobbying spend reinforces that the near term catalyst and risk center on Medicare payment policy for its long-term acute care and rehab assets. At this stage, the lobbying disclosure itself does not materially alter that balance, but it underscores how exposed the business is to regulatory decisions.

The most relevant recent announcement alongside this lobbying effort is the raised 2025 guidance, with management now expecting US$5.3 billion to US$5.5 billion in revenue and higher EPS. That outlook sits against persistent regulatory headwinds and a pressured critical illness recovery segment, so any change in Medicare reimbursement or rules for long-term acute care hospitals could quickly influence how achievable those targets look.

Yet behind the higher guidance, investors should be aware that ongoing Medicare reimbursement pressure and the recent 20% LTACH transmittal rule could...

Select Medical Holdings' narrative projects $6.1 billion revenue and $233.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $152.7 million earnings increase from $81.1 million today.

Uncover how Select Medical Holdings' forecasts yield a $17.83 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$4.81 to US$17.83 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those against the company’s heavy debt load and sensitivity to Medicare reimbursement terms, it becomes clear why investors may want to examine several contrasting viewpoints before forming an opinion.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Select Medical Holdings - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Select Medical Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Select Medical Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Select Medical Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Select Medical Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.