If you’ve been on the fence about Dole (NYSE:DOLE), the latest move may have caught your attention. Dole just completed a $157.9 million follow-on equity offering, adding nearly 12 million new shares to the market at $13.25 each. Events like this often shift investor sentiment, as the increased share count can mean both short-term price pressure and longer-term questions about how fresh capital will be put to use. In the bigger picture, Dole’s stock has had a mixed year. There’s been a slight uptick year-to-date, but a look at the past month and three months reveals some declines, with shares down around 5% and 2% respectively. Over the past twelve months, the stock has slipped 14%, though it’s still up strongly over the past three years. News about event sponsorships and sector leadership has kept Dole in headlines but has not moved the needle much compared to the impact of this recent equity raise. So the big question is, after this offering and the year’s ups and downs, is Dole trading at a discount, or is the market already factoring in every bit of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.4% Undervalued

According to the most popular narrative, Dole is currently trading at a significant discount compared to its analyst-derived fair value. This suggests the stock has meaningful upside potential if forecasts hold true.

Strong global demand and a strategic presence in key markets support revenue growth and margin expansion through premium positioning and diversified fresh produce offerings. Financial restructuring and operational investments improve flexibility and efficiency, enabling focus on higher-margin products and long-term market share gains as regulatory and ESG shifts occur.

Curious about what is fueling this undervaluation call? The narrative hints at a powerful blend of international expansion, strategic pivots, and efficiency moves driving Dole’s future. What aggressive projections make up the backbone of this valuation? Read on to see what is really behind the bold price target and whether the market is missing something significant.

Result: Fair Value of $17.83 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, extreme weather and the company's heavy reliance on major fruit crops could challenge the upbeat outlook and put pressure on Dole's future earnings stability.

Find out about the key risks to this Dole narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Perspective

While analyst price targets point to meaningful upside, our SWS DCF model also signals Dole is trading below its estimated fair value. But do these different methods truly support the same story, or could the future surprise?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out Dole for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Dole Narrative

If you see things differently or want deeper insight, you can dig into the data and shape your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Dole research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.