• Recently, HCI Group reported quarterly earnings per share of US$4.90, up from US$0.47 a year earlier, and has exceeded consensus EPS forecasts in each of the past four quarters while carrying an A-grade valuation score versus peers.
• This combination of very strong earnings growth, consistent estimate beats, and a discount valuation has brought fresh attention to HCI Group’s operating performance and positioning within property and casualty insurance.
• We’ll now examine how HCI Group’s recent pattern of earnings outperformance could influence the existing investment narrative around its technology-driven insurer model.

Find 54 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

HCI Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own HCI Group, you need to believe its technology-driven underwriting, Florida-focused book, and Exzeo platform can continue to support profitable growth despite weather and reinsurance pressures. The latest quarterly EPS of US$4.90, far above last year’s US$0.47 and ahead of forecasts, reinforces confidence in the near term, but does not change that the biggest short term swing factor remains catastrophe losses in Florida, while concentration in that state is still the core structural risk.

The upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release on 25 February 2026 now becomes a key checkpoint for whether HCI can extend its pattern of four straight EPS beats and sustain its A-grade valuation score against peers. For investors following catalysts such as the potential Exzeo IPO and any signs of progress on geographic expansion, this next report may offer useful context on how durable the current earnings strength really is.

Yet investors should also be aware that HCI’s heavy Florida concentration leaves the business highly exposed to ...

HCI Group's narrative projects $1.1 billion revenue and $342.7 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how HCI Group's forecasts yield a $245.00 fair value, a 55% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$144 to US$687 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. Against that backdrop, HCI’s reliance on Florida and rising reinsurance costs keeps catastrophe exposure front and center for anyone weighing how its recent earnings strength might hold up over time.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on HCI Group - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Build Your Own HCI Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your HCI Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free HCI Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate HCI Group's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In HCI Group?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.