• In early February 2026, Maximus, Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results showing sales of US$1,345.05 million versus US$1,402.68 million a year earlier, but net income more than doubled to US$93.94 million and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations rose to US$1.70 from US$0.69.
• Alongside narrowing full-year 2026 revenue guidance to US$5.20–US$5.35 billion to reflect a business divestiture, Maximus completed a multi-year share repurchase program totaling 9,320,365 shares, or 15.65% of its stock, highlighting an ongoing focus on capital returns after a period of contract delays and portfolio repositioning.
• We’ll now examine how this sharp earnings improvement and completed buyback program may influence Maximus’s longer-term investment narrative and outlook.

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Maximus Investment Narrative Recap

To own Maximus, you need to believe government agencies will keep outsourcing complex, compliance-heavy programs, even as they adopt more automation and AI. The sharp jump in earnings this quarter helps near term confidence, but the key catalyst remains the pace of new and renewed government contracts, while the biggest risk is still contract delays or volume shifts that can quickly unsettle revenue.

The completion of the multi-year buyback, retiring 15.65% of shares, is especially relevant here. It tightens the share count just as profitability has improved, potentially amplifying the impact of any future earnings swings tied to contract wins, losses, or changing government technology preferences.

Yet investors should also be aware that if federal budget scrutiny and digital self-service adoption accelerate faster than expected, Maximus could face pressure on both contract volumes and pricing...

Maximus' narrative projects $6.1 billion revenue and $486.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.9% yearly revenue growth and a $170.3 million earnings increase from $316.2 million today.

Uncover how Maximus' forecasts yield a $110.00 fair value, a 47% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most cautious analysts were assuming only about 2% annual revenue growth to around US$5.7 billion by 2028, and your view on AI driven self service could make that look either too harsh or not harsh enough.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Maximus - why the stock might be worth just $110.00!

Build Your Own Maximus Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Maximus research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Maximus research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Maximus' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.