MongoDB (MDB) shares have been in focus recently as the company’s stock has climbed 1% over the past day and nearly 3% this month. Investors appear interested in the underlying factors driving this upward momentum.

Momentum has been building for MongoDB, with the latest share price closing at $326.29 as investors respond to a string of solid quarterly results and signs of improving growth fundamentals. While recent share price returns have been positive, it is the 1-year total shareholder return of nearly 29% that really stands out and suggests long-term confidence remains strong in the market.

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With shares trending upward and long-term returns attracting attention, the key question for investors now is whether MongoDB remains undervalued or if the market has already factored in all its future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Undervalued

MongoDB’s share price recently closed at $326.29, while the most widely followed narrative gives a fair value of $350.80, suggesting market optimism is not unfounded. Understanding the drivers behind this target provides crucial context for investors considering the upside.

Ongoing product innovation, including integrated capabilities like search, vector search, and embeddings, increases platform stickiness and wallet share, enabling deeper penetration of current accounts and higher net revenue retention, which can drive both top-line and operating margin improvement over time.

Want to know what’s powering those bullish forecasts? The most surprising part of this narrative is just how much future margin and revenue improvement is baked in. A closer look reveals aggressive profitability milestones and growth assumptions, all tied to MongoDB’s product evolution. Think the market has already priced it in? You might be surprised. Get the full picture inside the narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $350.80 (UNDERVALUED)

However, heightened competition from cloud-native and open-source rivals, as well as potential slowdowns in enterprise workload growth, could quickly challenge the current bullish narrative.

Another View: Multiples Send a Different Signal

While the most popular narrative sees MongoDB as undervalued, a look at market ratios tells a more cautious story. The company's price-to-sales ratio stands at 12x, which is much higher than the US IT industry average of 2.4x and the peer group average of 7.4x. Even when compared to the fair ratio of 10.7x, MongoDB still appears expensive. These wide gaps suggest the market is already paying a premium for future growth, raising key questions about valuation risk and whether additional upside is justified from here.

Build Your Own MongoDB Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can put together your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your MongoDB research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.