BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating on the shares of Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) on Monday and lowered the price forecast from $250.00 to $205.00.

The analyst expects Expedia to face challenges from a slowdown in U.S. travel demand ahead of its May 8 earnings report.

With peers reporting weaker year-over-year growth in booked nights and domestic air travel showing signs of pressure, Expedia's nights growth is projected to slow to 5% in the first quarter.

Bookings are estimated at $31.5 billion, slightly below consensus. The second-quarter EBITDA is forecast at $272 million, which is helped by Trivago revenue and lower first-quarter marketing costs.

U.S. travel indicators are softening, with TSA enplanements nearly flat in March and hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) turning negative in April.

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Both Booking and Airbnb have forecast slower quarter-over-quarter growth in the second quarter nights.

Expedia aims to protect margins by cutting about 3% of its workforce in April, following earlier reductions. This signals continued focus on year-over-year margin improvement.

Post trimmed his 2025 estimates for Expedia, projecting just 3% growth in bookings and 4% in revenue, with B2C expected to decline slightly.

Second-quarter nights and bookings growth are now at 2% year-over-year, marking a slowdown. EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are reduced to $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, respectively.

According to Post, the cut in the price forecast reflects trimmed estimates and sector-wide valuation compression. Despite this, the analyst maintained a “Buy” rating, citing the stock's attractive valuation at just 7x projected 2026 free cash flow and 6x EBITDA.

He said improved execution under Expedia's new management and a rebound in U.S. travel trends could help narrow the valuation gap with Booking Holdings.

Price Action: EXPE shares traded higher by 2.24% at $165.41 at last check Monday.

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