• In September 2025, Hess Midstream revised its earnings and production guidance for the remainder of 2025 and the next two years, citing lower Bakken rig activity by Chevron and operational headwinds such as adverse weather and maintenance.
• This guidance update introduces a more cautious outlook, with the company projecting throughput levels to plateau and capital expenditures to be trimmed in response to reduced Chevron operations in the Bakken shale.
• We'll explore how Chevron’s reduction in rig activity and Hess Midstream’s lower earnings forecast now impact the company’s investment narrative.

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Hess Midstream Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Hess Midstream, you need to believe in the long-term resilience of Bakken production, and in the value of minimum volume contracts with Chevron that underpin stable, fee-based revenue. The recent downward revision in 2025 guidance spotlights how pivotal Chevron’s drilling decisions are for Hess Midstream, reinforcing that rig activity remains both the most important near-term catalyst and risk; this time, the impact has been material, tempering short-term growth expectations.

Of particular relevance is the September 2025 guidance cut, which pulls full-year net income toward the bottom of the prior range due to adverse weather, operational maintenance, and chevron’s reduced rig program. This announcement has immediate implications for throughput volumes and EBITDA, directly connecting back to the key risk: concentrated reliance on Chevron’s drilling activity and Bakken-specific output for future cash flow growth.

In contrast, investors should be keenly aware that declining Bakken rig activity can quickly translate into...

Hess Midstream's narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $769.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.8% yearly revenue growth and a $478.2 million earnings increase from the current earnings of $290.9 million.

Uncover how Hess Midstream's forecasts yield a $44.17 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Hess Midstream range from US$11.87 to US$64.17 based on four unique perspectives. With throughput volumes plateauing due to Chevron’s activity, these diverse opinions highlight how investor expectations for future growth may significantly influence share valuation and outlook.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Hess Midstream - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Hess Midstream Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Hess Midstream research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hess Midstream research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hess Midstream's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.