Hilltop Holdings (HTH) just closed out FY 2025 with Q4 total revenue of US$322.1 million and basic EPS of US$0.69, backed by trailing 12 month revenue of US$1.27 billion and EPS of US$2.64. Over the past year, the company has seen revenue move from US$1.19 billion on a trailing basis at the end of 2024 to US$1.27 billion now, while net income over the same window shifted from US$113.2 million to US$165.6 million. This gives a clearer read on how earnings are tracking through the cycle. With net margin running at 13% over the last 12 months and quarterly credit quality metrics improving, this update puts profitability and risk in sharper focus for investors watching how the story is evolving.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how they line up with the widely followed narratives around Hilltop’s growth, risk profile and profitability, and where those storylines might need to be updated.

46.3% earnings growth versus 5 year decline

• On a trailing 12 month basis, net income excluding extra items is US$165.6 million with EPS of US$2.64, compared with a 46.3% earnings growth rate over the past year and an average 32.5% per year earnings decline over five years.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that recent profitability, with a 13% net margin and US$1.27b of trailing revenue, supports the idea of a more resilient earnings base, yet
  • the longer term record of earnings declining at 32.5% per year and analyst forecasts for about 10.6% per year earnings declines over the next three years push back against a simple growth story.
  • consensus narrative points to recurring revenue growth and efficiency gains, and the margin uplift from 9.5% to 13% fits that, but the forecasts in the data show that these drivers are not expected to translate into higher earnings over the medium term.

Stronger recent margins and EPS help bulls argue the business is stabilising, but the five year decline and forecast drops keep the debate alive. 🐂 Hilltop Holdings Bull Case

Credit quality and loan book metrics

• Total loans reached US$8.3b at FY 2025 Q4 while non performing loans were US$53.4 million, compared with US$7.95b of loans and US$88.1 million of non performing loans in FY 2024 Q4.
• Bears often highlight Hilltop’s reliance on mortgage origination and Texas exposure as a risk to loan quality, and the consensus narrative flags housing and regional downturns as key concerns, yet
  • the data here shows non performing loans moving from US$91.2 million in 2024 Q3 to US$53.4 million in 2025 Q4, alongside a larger loan book, which challenges the idea that credit metrics are currently deteriorating.
  • at the same time, analysts still expect earnings to decline by about 10.6% per year, so even with healthier reported credit metrics, the cautious view focuses on how exposure to housing and Texas could matter if conditions worsen.

Improved credit ratios give skeptics less current evidence for the harshest credit worries, even as concentration risks remain a core bearish theme. 🐻 Hilltop Holdings Bear Case

P/E of 14.1x versus DCF fair value

• The shares are trading on a P/E of 14.1x compared with a DCF fair value of US$23.34 per share and a current price of US$39.27, and an allowed analyst price target of US$38.67 sits slightly below the market price.
• Consensus narrative talks about earnings stability from diversified noninterest income and potential benefits from consolidation, yet
  • The combination of a P/E above the US Banks industry average of 11.9x and a DCF fair value below the current price indicates investors are paying more than that model suggests for those qualities.
  • Analysts in the supplied data also expect revenue to grow only around 1.7% per year with margins shrinking from 11.6% to 6.1%, which contrasts with the idea of long term earnings expansion even as the analyst price target of US$38.67 remains close to the current US$39.27 level.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Hilltop Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

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A great starting point for your Hilltop Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Hilltop’s mix of a 32.5% average annual earnings decline over five years, expected earnings drops and a P/E above peers suggests valuation and earnings quality concerns.

If that combination makes you cautious about paying a higher price for uncertain earnings, it could be worth checking companies our 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores highlights as aiming for steadier fundamentals and lower perceived risk right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.