• Earlier this week, Maplebear Inc. (Instacart) reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of US$992 million versus US$883 million a year earlier, while quarterly net income declined to US$81 million from US$148 million amid higher legal and regulatory costs.
• Alongside its strongest gross transaction value and order growth in three years, Maplebear bought back US$1.10 billion of shares in Q4 2025, signaling management’s confidence even as profitability came under pressure.
• Next, we’ll examine how Maplebear’s strong Q4 order and GTV growth reshapes its investment narrative built around partnerships and data.

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Maplebear Investment Narrative Recap

To own Maplebear, you need to believe its grocery focused marketplace, enterprise tools and retail media can compound value even as competition, regulation and gig labor costs stay challenging. The immediate catalyst remains whether strong Q4 order and GTV growth can sustain revenue and ad momentum; the biggest near term risk is legal and regulatory scrutiny, which is already weighing on GAAP profitability and could become more material if enforcement actions broaden.

Among recent updates, the large Q4 2025 buyback stands out: Maplebear repurchased US$1.10 billion of stock, completing 17.67% of shares under its authorization. That magnitude of capital return sits alongside the latest partnerships in beauty and gifting, and ties directly into the current catalyst by amplifying per share exposure to any future growth in GTV, orders and higher margin enterprise and advertising revenue streams.

Yet behind the strong top line, investors should also be aware of ongoing regulatory investigations into pricing and subscription practices and how they could affect...

Maplebear's narrative projects $4.6 billion revenue and $779.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $300.9 million earnings increase from $479.0 million today.

Uncover how Maplebear's forecasts yield a $50.22 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most optimistic analysts were already assuming Maplebear could lift annual revenue to about US$5.0 billion and earnings to US$1.0 billion, which is a far more bullish story than the consensus view. When you set those expectations against Q4’s solid sales growth and rising legal costs, it highlights how far opinions can differ and why it is worth comparing several scenarios before deciding what you think is realistic.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Maplebear - why the stock might be worth just $50.22!

Build Your Own Maplebear Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Maplebear research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Maplebear research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Maplebear's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.