ICF International (ICFI) recently announced two contracts with European institutions to run public communication campaigns across all 27 EU member states, with a combined ceiling of nearly US$300 million over up to five years.

The new European contracts arrive as ICF International’s share price sits at US$93.05, with a 7-day share price return of 4.88% and a year to date share price return of 9.07%. The 1-year total shareholder return of negative 27.42% contrasts with a 5-year total shareholder return of 20.11%, suggesting recent momentum has picked up after a weaker period for long term holders.

If this kind of contract win has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With ICF International trading at US$93.05 and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 28%, plus a 1 year total shareholder return of negative 27.42%, you have to ask: is there mispricing here, or are markets already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.9% Undervalued

With ICF International's fair value narrative sitting at US$103.25 against a last close of US$93.05, the valuation depends on how future contracts, margins and earnings evolve from here.

The federal government's renewed focus on IT modernization, outcome-based contracting, and adoption of artificial intelligence in agency operations, together with ICF's proprietary Fathom AI suite launch, is expected to influence growth in federal technology contracts and incremental margin expansion as project mix changes.

Want to see what is built into that price target? Revenue slipping slightly, earnings easing back, yet supported by a richer earnings multiple and steady buybacks. Curious how those moving parts fit together? The full narrative lays out the chain of assumptions in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $103.25 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you also have to weigh ongoing federal funding delays and contract cancellations, as well as reliance on regulated energy programs, which could both pressure revenue visibility and margins.

Build Your Own ICF International Narrative

If you read this and think the story plays out differently, or you simply want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view of ICF International in a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ICF International research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.