• Century Aluminum recently experienced upward revisions to its full-year earnings estimates, supported by progress on the Mt. Holly expansion and a new U.S. smelter project, while also garnering strong analyst optimism reflected in high momentum scores and positive rankings.
• An interesting point is the ongoing debate among analysts regarding the company's valuation, with some viewing it as overvalued and others as deeply undervalued based on discounted cash flow models.
• We'll examine how Century Aluminum's improved business outlook, reflected in upgraded earnings estimates, could impact its long-term investment narrative.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

Investors considering Century Aluminum typically share confidence in the long-term outlook for U.S. aluminum demand, especially as the company expands domestic production and benefits from trade protections. The recent positive earnings estimate revisions are aligned with ongoing expansion at Mt. Holly, which continues to be the main short-term catalyst. However, this news has not materially changed the most significant risk: potential policy shifts affecting tariffs and domestic aluminum premiums.

Among recent announcements, Century’s plan to restart 50,000 metric tons of idled capacity at Mt. Holly stands out, aiming to boost domestic supply by nearly 10% by June 2026. This initiative supports the company's growth narrative and aligns closely with the renewed momentum from stronger earnings projections, reinforcing the expansion’s importance as a catalyst for investor confidence.

In contrast, it remains important for investors to watch for any signs of shifting U.S. trade policy that could threaten...

Century Aluminum's outlook anticipates $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on forecast annual revenue growth of 7.6% and an earnings increase of $367.9 million from the current $111.4 million.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $29.00 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimated Century Aluminum’s fair value ranging from US$22.13 to US$89.94 across three distinct forecasts. While the Mt. Holly expansion is viewed as a key catalyst, these diverse outlooks show how broader industry changes and government policy uncertainty continue to shape expectations.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Century Aluminum?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.