• In February 2026, BGC Group, Inc. reported past fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of US$756.37 million, up from US$572.33 million a year earlier, while net income declined to US$14.37 million and full‑year revenue rose to US$2.94 billion with net income of US$154.96 million.
• Beyond the headline records, BGC’s acquisition of OTC made it the world’s largest energy broker and, together with cost‑saving programs and expanding electronic platforms like FMX, underpinned its confident guidance for higher 2026 revenues and earnings.
• Next, we’ll examine how BGC’s record revenues and upbeat 2026 guidance reshape its investment narrative built around electronic trading expansion.

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BGC Group Investment Narrative Recap

BGC’s story today is about whether it can turn record revenues and expanding electronic platforms into durable, higher quality earnings. The latest results support the near term catalyst of electronic trading growth, but the sharp drop in quarterly net income highlights how sensitive profitability remains to costs and integration risks, especially around OTC and FMX.

The company’s guidance for US$860 million to US$920 million of Q1 2026 revenue, alongside its US$25 million annualized cost saving program, directly ties recent performance to the key catalyst of scaling higher margin electronic and energy brokerage. For investors, the question is how consistently BGC can translate that guidance and record top line into sustained margin improvement without further one off support.

Yet even with record revenues and upbeat guidance, investors should be aware that profitability is still vulnerable if expected cost savings from recent acquisitions...

BGC Group's narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 19.6% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $1.6 billion earnings increase from $146.6 million today.

Uncover how BGC Group's forecasts yield a $14.50 fair value, a 57% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span from about US$2.82 to US$14.50 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. You are weighing those against a catalyst story built on BGC’s push into scalable electronic trading, which could have important implications for how its earnings profile evolves over time.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on BGC Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own BGC Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your BGC Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free BGC Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate BGC Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.