• In January 2026, CareDx issued earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, projecting approximately US$108,000,000 in quarterly revenue and about US$380,000,000 for the year, both showing double-digit year-over-year growth.
• This updated outlook highlights management’s confidence in the company’s current operating trajectory and signals stronger-than-previously-communicated business momentum.
• Next, we will examine how CareDx’s higher 2025 revenue guidance could shape the company’s investment narrative and longer-term growth drivers.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

What Is CareDx's Investment Narrative?

To own CareDx, you have to believe in the long-term role of precision diagnostics in transplant care and the company’s ability to turn that position into sustainable, high-quality earnings. The latest 2025 guidance lift to about US$380,000,000 in revenue and a stronger fourth quarter outlook reinforces the near-term revenue story and suggests that recent operational execution is tracking ahead of earlier expectations. That likely strengthens short-term catalysts around revenue growth and profitability, especially after the share price’s strong three month move. At the same time, key risks remain: earnings quality is influenced by high non-cash items, management is relatively new, and there is ongoing legal and governance overhang, including the derivative suit settlement process. The new guidance improves the momentum narrative, but it does not remove those uncertainties.

However, investors should also weigh the legal overhang and earnings quality concerns. CareDx's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates range from about US$23 to a very large US$201 per share, reflecting very different expectations. Set against the upgraded 2025 revenue guidance and still-evolving legal backdrop, this spread underlines why it helps to compare several viewpoints before forming a conviction on CareDx’s potential.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on CareDx - why the stock might be worth over 9x more than the current price!

Build Your Own CareDx Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your CareDx research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free CareDx research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate CareDx's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.