• If you are wondering whether Celsius Holdings shares still make sense at today’s price or if the story has already played out, this article walks through what the numbers suggest about value right now.
• The stock last closed at US$55.24, with returns of 3.2% over 7 days, 23.8% over 30 days, 15.7% year to date, 120.6% over 1 year, 62.2% over 3 years, and 195.6% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about what is already reflected in the price.
• Recent coverage has focused on Celsius Holdings as a high growth consumer brand, with attention on its position in the energy drink market and distribution partnerships that shape investor expectations. These stories provide important context for the recent share price moves and help explain why interest in the stock has stayed high.
• On Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, Celsius Holdings scores 2 out of 6, which points to some areas where the shares look undervalued and others where they look fully priced or expensive. Next, we will walk through the main valuation methods at play and then finish with a way to think about value that goes beyond the usual ratios.

Celsius Holdings scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Celsius Holdings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes projections of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return. The output is an estimate of what the entire business could be worth in today’s dollars.

For Celsius Holdings, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is reported at about $522 million. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates for the next few years, and Simply Wall St then extends those estimates further out, including a projected free cash flow of $722 million in 2030, with additional extrapolated figures through 2035.

Adding up those discounted projections gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$71.21 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$55.24, the model implies the stock trades at about a 22.4% discount to this intrinsic value. On this DCF view, Celsius Holdings appears to be trading below the model’s estimate of intrinsic value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Celsius Holdings is undervalued by 22.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 878 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Approach 2: Celsius Holdings Price vs Sales

For a consumer company where revenue is a key focus, the P/S ratio is a useful gauge of what investors are paying for each dollar of sales, especially when profits may not fully capture the business potential.

Growth expectations and risk matter because faster, less risky growth usually justifies a higher P/S, while slower or more uncertain prospects tend to support a lower, more conservative multiple.

Celsius Holdings currently trades on a P/S of 6.70x. This sits above the Beverage industry average of 2.13x and the peer average of 1.63x, which indicates that the market is assigning a premium to the company’s sales compared with many competitors.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Celsius Holdings is 3.41x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk profile.

Because the Fair Ratio explicitly adjusts for those fundamentals, it can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, which may not share the same growth runway, margins or risk characteristics.

Comparing the actual 6.70x P/S to the Fair Ratio of 3.41x suggests the shares trade at a richer multiple than the model implies.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1428 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Celsius Holdings Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your own story about a company, tied directly to your assumptions about fair value and future revenue, earnings and margins.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you link what you believe about Celsius Holdings, such as its brand strength or competitive position, to a clear financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate that you can compare against today’s share price.

Because these Narratives sit on the platform used by millions of investors, you can quickly see how others are thinking and use their fair values alongside your own to decide whether the current price looks high, low or roughly in line with your expectations. The views update as new earnings or news are reflected in the underlying numbers.

For example, one investor might set a relatively optimistic Narrative for Celsius Holdings with higher long term revenue growth and margins. Another might take a more cautious view with lower growth and profitability assumptions, and both fair values will automatically refresh as new data comes in.

Do you think there's more to the story for Celsius Holdings? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.