Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

COOLING DEGREE DAYS: JOLTS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CASE-SHILLER, ET AL

Investors - and the Fed - were greeted by a data downpour on Tuesday, none of which is likely to sway the course as Powell & Co convene for their two-day monetary policy palaver.

Job openings in the United States fell by 3.6% in June to 7.437 million, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) USJOLT=ECI.

That's a slightly bigger decrease than the 3.5% drop to 7.5 million economists expected; the May number was revised a bit higher.

The JOLTS report, which tracks labor market churn, also showed hires decreased by 4.8% while firings were essentially unchanged from May.

But 3.9% fewer workers quit their jobs, which aligns with the gloomier "jobs confidence" aspect of today's Consumer Confidence report.

The data "painted a familiar picture of the labor market: hiring remains quite low, but so do layoffs," says Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "This will allow the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady as it waits for a clearer picture of how tariffs will impact inflation and growth."

Which provides an excellent segue to the brightening mood of the U.S. consumer, who shoulders about 70% of the U.S. economy.

The Conference Board's (CB) consumer confidence index USCONC=ECI rose by 2 full points in July to land at 97.2, cheerier than the 95.0 consensus.

Digging deeper, while survey participants' assessment of present conditions deteriorated by 1.1%, near-term expectations jumped by 6.4%.

"In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence," writes Stephanie Guichard, CB's Senior Economist of Global Indicators. "Consumers (are) feeling less pessimistic about future business conditions and employment, and more optimistic about future income."

"By partisan affiliation, confidence improved in July among Republican consumers and was stable for Democrats and Independents," Guichard adds.

Data geeks will remember that a yawning gap between the present situation and expectations - as seen in the graphic below - is often a harbinger of recession. Any material narrowing of the gulf between the two is good news:

However, as if to corroborate the drop in quits in the JOLTS report, a look at the jobs confidence segment of the report reveals growing pessimism.

"(Respondents') appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021," Guichard says.

Switching to housing, home prices across major U.S. cities dropped by 0.3% in May, steeper than the 0.2% down-tick economists predicted.

Year-on-year, the Case-Shiller 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI increased by 2.8%, much cooler than April's 3.4% annual increase and 0.2 percentage points south of consensus.

“May’s data continued the year’s slow unwind of price momentum, with annual gains narrowing for a fourth consecutive month,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The spring market lifted prices modestly, but not enough to suggest sustained acceleration."

Among the cities in the composite, New York and Chicago once again led the year-over-year gainers, rising 7.4% and 6.1%, respectively. Alas, poor Tampa was once again the biggest loser, with home prices down 2.4% from a year ago.

And finally, the Commerce Department released its advance take on goods trade balance USGBAL=ECI and wholesale inventories USAWIN=ECI for April.

The gap between the value of goods imported to the United States and those exported abroad widened by 10.8% to $85.99 billion last month.

Imports to the United States dropped by 4.2%, while exports dipped by 0.6%, a reminder that the August 1 tariff deadline just three days away,

Net trade was the biggest drag on first-quarter GDP, as companies rushed to make purchases ahead of Trump's expected tariff hikes. As to whether that trend has continued, we'll have to wait for the Commerce Department's first take on second-quarter GDP, expected tomorrow.

The value of goods stacked in the warehouses of U.S. wholesalers increased by 0.2%, a partial rebound from May's 0.3% drop.

(Stephen Culp)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

GOING INTO ITS SHELL? CLICK HERE

TRUMP’S AI ACTION PLAN: WHO GETS TO BENEFIT? CLICK HERE

TECH TRADE: A PAUSE OR A PIVOT? CLICK HERE

S&P 500 INDEX STREAK OF RECORD CLOSING HIGHS FACES LOOMING EVENT RISKS CLICK HERE

TIME FOR A BREAK IN EUROPE'S DEFENCE RALLY? CLICK HERE

WHY THE EU/US DEAL DOESN'T ADD UP - RBC CLICK HERE

TARIFFS MAY DRIVE US LUXURY SHOPPERS ABROAD - UBS CLICK HERE

MEGA CAPS AREN'T POWERING THE 'MEGA' TRADE CLICK HERE

EARNINGS DECENT, IN AGGREGATE, STOXX UP CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: LOTS OF EARNINGS CLICK HERE

MORNING BID: REMEMBERING THE DOWNSIDES TO TARIFFS CLICK HERE

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)