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PRE-SHUTDOWN DATA DELUGE: JOLTS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, HOME PRICES, CHICAGO PMI

A cavalcade of economic indicators hit the wire on Tuesday, giving investors something to chew on in advance of a potential partial government shutdown, which could delay the release of crucial government data, particularly the September employment report otherwise due on Friday.

Job openings in the United States increased by 19,000 in August to 7.227 million, according to the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) USSHPQ=ECI.

That's 0.6% more than the 7.185 million economists expected and follows in the wake of July's upwardly adjusted number.

The JOLTS report, which tracks labor market churn, also showed hires decreased by 2.2% while firings dipped by 2.1%.

Additionally, 2.4% fewer workers quit their jobs, which aligns with the gloomier "jobs confidence" aspect of today's Consumer Confidence report.

What does all this mean for monetary policy?

"The Fed has a bias to cut unless the labor market shows signs of improvement," writes Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

But Sweet adds that the fog in which the Fed sets monetary policy "could get thicker because the partial federal government shutdown could delay the release of the September employment report."

Which provides an excellent segue to the brightening mood of the U.S. consumer, who shoulders about 70% of the U.S. economy.

The Conference Board's (CB) consumer confidence index USCONC=ECI shed 3.6 points in September to land at 94.2, gloomier than the 96.0 consensus.

Digging deeper, survey participants' assessment of present conditions deteriorated by 5.3%, near-term expectations dipped 1.7%.

The index "weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025," writes Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, who added that "consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy."

Data geeks will remember that a yawning gap between the present situation and expectations - as seen in the graphic below - is often a harbinger of recession. So despite the worse-than-expected headline number, any narrowing of the gulf between the two is good news:

However, as if to corroborate the drop in quits in the JOLTS report, Guichard says survey respondents' "appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low."

Switching to housing, home prices across major U.S. cities inched 0.1% lower in July, shallower than the 0.2% down-tick economists predicted.

Year-on-year, the Case-Shiller 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI increased by 1.8%, cooler than June's 2.2% annual increase, but 0.2 percentage points south of consensus.

"July’s results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear,” says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones. U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners."

"Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be settling into a new, more measured equilibrium," Godec adds.

Among the cities in the composite, New York and Chicago once again led the year-over-year gainers, rising 6.4% and 6.2%, respectively. Alas, poor Tampa was once again the biggest loser, with home prices down 2.8% from a year ago.

Finally, Midwest factory activity continued to slide this month, and at a steeper-than-expected pace.

MNI Indicators' Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) USCPMI=ECI delivered a reading of 40.6, 0.9 points lower than August. Economists called for a shallower print at an even 43.0.

A PMI reading south of 50 indicates monthly contraction, and a number below 43 is widely associated with recession.

Market participants will get a clearer picture of the state of U.S. manufacturing on Wednesday, when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its nationwide PMI.

Analysts see that report improving to a barely-contractive but much healthier 49.0.

(Stephen Culp)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

THE SEPTEMBER EFFECT LOOKS LIKELY TO BLOW PAST WALL STREET THIS YEAR CLICK HERE

GOLDMAN SACHS SEES LOWER RISKS OF US RECESSION AS ECONOMY HOLDS UP CLICK HERE

TARIFFS TICKING UP CONSUMER PRICES SLOWLY VS 2018-19 EPISODE CLICK HERE

UK GDP: SIGNALS BENEATH THE SMOOTH SURFACE CLICK HERE

STOXX DIPS, FINANCIALS OUTPERFORM CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: MUTED START AS Q3 WRAPS UP CLICK HERE

BONFIRE OF THE VANITIES CLICK HERE