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U.S. STOCK FUTURES CRAWL HIGHER AFTER LATEST CPI

The main U.S. equity index futures are slightly higher, and yields are slightly lower, after the release of the latest data on U.S. consumer prices, which came in mixed relative to estimates.

E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are now up around 0.4% vs a gain of around 0.25% just before the numbers came out.

June headline CPI month-over-month was in line with the estimate, while the year-over-year print was above the Reuters Poll. The month-over-month and year-over-year core reads were cooler-than-expected.

Separately, the July New York Fed manufacturing index came in at +5.50 vs a -9.00 estimate:

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed sits on its hands and leaves its current target rate of 4.25%-4.50% unchanged at its July 29-30 FOMC meeting has not budged, and remains at 97%. The chance the FOMC cuts rates is around 3%.

Looking out further out into 2025, the market is still showing a bias for two rate cuts to occur, one in September and one in December. Interest rate probabilities are pricing in a total of 47.5 basis points of cuts through year-end.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield US10YT=RR is now around 4.40%. It was around 4.43% just before the numbers came out. The yield ended Monday at 4.427%.

A majority of S&P 500 index .SPX sector SPDR ETFs are quoted down in premarket trade. Tech XLK.P, on the back of Nvidia NVDA.O strength and other chip stock gains, is posting the biggest rise. XLK is up more than 1%. Financials XLF.P, off around 0.3%, is the weakest group.

The SPDR S&P regional banking ETF KRE.P is trading off around 0.3%.

Regarding the inflation data, Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said:

"Tariffs are in the data, but it’s not as devastating as many feared. Appliances and household equipment and furnishings prices jumped nearly 2%, but those only make up around 1% of the consumer price index."

Jacobsen added, "Services make up the bulk of the consumption basket and there is scant sign of accelerating inflation there. Rent rose 0.2%, lodging away from home fell 2.9%."

"It’s not that tariffs don’t matter, it’s just that they don’t matter to inflation as much or as mechanically as many feared."

Here is a premarket snapshot from around 08:50 a.m. EDT:

(Terence Gabriel, Chuck Mikolajczak)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

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WATCH OUT FOR HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF IN AUGUST CLICK HERE

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BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES UP, EARNINGS IN FOCUS CLICK HERE

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