MDU Resources Group (MDU) just wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$534 million and basic EPS of US$0.37, while trailing twelve month EPS came in at US$0.94 on revenue of about US$1.9 billion. Over recent quarters, the company has seen quarterly revenue range from US$315 million to US$675 million, with basic EPS moving between US$0.07 and US$0.40, giving investors a clear view of how earnings track through different parts of the year. With net margin sitting close to flat compared to last year, the story now is less about a big swing in profitability and more about how durable these margins look against the growth expectations baked into the stock.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to set these results against the most common narratives around MDU, highlighting where the latest figures support the story and where they might push investors to reassess it.

TTM net margin steady at 10.2%

• Over the last twelve months, MDU earned US$191.4 million of net income on US$1.9b of revenue, which works out to a 10.2% net margin versus 10.3% a year earlier. That points to very similar profitability on roughly 5.8% revenue growth.
• Supporters of a more optimistic view often see regulated utility style businesses as relatively steady, and the combination of a 10.2% net margin and trailing twelve month EPS of US$0.94 gives some backing to that. However, the long run picture is more mixed:
  • Five year earnings have declined on average 16.3% per year, even though the most recent year showed 5.7% earnings growth versus that five year trend.
  • This contrast means the current 10.2% margin and US$191.4 million of net income look stable right now, but they sit against a track record that has not followed a straight line.

Strong believers in the company argue that this kind of steady 10.2% margin can underpin long term returns, so it is worth understanding how that aligns with the patchier five year earnings record in the full discussion in 📊 Read the full MDU Resources Group Consensus Narrative.

EPS trend and seasonality across FY 2025

• Across FY 2025, quarterly basic EPS moved from US$0.40 in Q1 to US$0.07 in Q2, US$0.09 in Q3 and US$0.37 in Q4, while quarterly revenue ranged between US$315.0 million and US$674.8 million. This shows how earnings bunch up around the stronger quarters even though the trailing twelve month EPS smooths out at US$0.94.
• What stands out when you line this up against a more cautious, bearish leaning view is that the weak spots in individual quarters sit inside a broader year that still produced US$191.4 million of net income:
  • Critics highlight the long term pattern, where earnings have fallen on average 16.3% per year over five years, and point to low quarterly EPS like Q2’s US$0.07 as reminders of that pressure.
  • Set against that, the latest twelve month EPS of US$0.94 and Q4 EPS of US$0.37 show that even with softer quarters in the middle of the year, the company can still post a full year that is higher than the five year average trend might suggest.

P/E premium and DCF gap to US$18.39

• At a share price of US$20.34, MDU trades on a trailing P/E of 21.7x, above both the Global Gas Utilities industry average of 14.7x and a peer average of 19.9x, and also above a stated DCF fair value of US$18.39.
• Bears focus on that premium as a key concern, and the numbers do give them material points to work with:
  • The stock is not only priced higher than industry and peer P/E multiples, it is also above the DCF fair value of US$18.39, which suggests the current price builds in expectations beyond the recent 5.7% earnings growth and 5.8% revenue growth cited for the last year.
  • On top of that, the risk work highlights weak interest coverage and an unstable dividend track record, so anyone worried about the P/E premium can point to specific balance sheet and payout flags rather than just the valuation multiples alone.

If you are weighing that valuation premium against the earnings and margin profile, it can help to see how both sides of the argument stack up in the fuller bear case and risk breakdown in 🐻 MDU Resources Group Bear Case

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on MDU Resources Group's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

Explore Alternatives

MDU’s premium P/E relative to peers, patchy five year earnings record and flagged balance sheet and dividend concerns suggest some investors may see an uneven risk reward trade off.

If that mix of valuation premium and financial flags feels a bit too tense, you can quickly compare it with 86 resilient stocks with low risk scores and see which companies better match your comfort zone.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.