• In the past quarter, Moelis & Company reported financial results featuring revenue growth of 33.9% year on year and an earnings-per-share beat, while missing both revenue and EBITDA consensus estimates.
• This combination of stronger earnings and softer profitability metrics, alongside supportive analyst commentary, has sharpened investor focus on the quality and sustainability of Moelis’ growth.
• Against this backdrop of revenue expansion but weaker-than-expected EBITDA, we’ll examine how the latest results may reshape Moelis’ investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Moelis Investment Narrative Recap

To own Moelis, you generally need to believe in its ability to convert deal activity into consistent advisory fees while managing a high-cost talent model. The latest quarter’s strong year-on-year revenue growth but EBITDA miss keeps the near term focus on margin resilience rather than changing the core story. The biggest short term catalyst remains deal activity translating into profitable mandates, while the key risk is that elevated compensation and expansion costs continue to weigh on earnings if revenue momentum softens.

Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley’s recent decision to keep an Overweight rating on Moelis and lift its price target to US$89.00 stands out as the most relevant development. It underlines that some analysts see the earnings beat and revenue growth as supportive for the advisory franchise, even as the EBITDA shortfall highlights the ongoing tension between investing in senior bankers and maintaining margin discipline.

Yet while near term optimism is building around deal activity, investors should also be aware of the risk that Moelis’ event driven, transaction heavy model...

Moelis' narrative projects $2.1 billion revenue and $381.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $183.6 million earnings increase from $198.1 million today.

Uncover how Moelis' forecasts yield a $76.50 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see fair value for Moelis between US$67.08 and US$76.50, highlighting how far individual views can diverge. Set against the mixed quarter of revenue growth but weaker EBITDA, this spread underlines why you may want to compare several viewpoints before deciding how Moelis’ deal driven model could influence its results over time.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Moelis - why the stock might be worth 10% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Moelis Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moelis research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moelis research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moelis' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.