Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) came under pressure after BNP Paribas SA cut its rating to underperform, citing economic headwinds, recent guidance reductions, softer demand, higher costs, and changing consumer preferences as key concerns for investors.

The BNP Paribas downgrade came after a period where the 90 day share price return of 5.04% suggested some recovery momentum, while the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 8.07% underlines how sentiment has cooled over a longer stretch.

If this rating cut has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to widen your search and check out auto manufacturers.

With shares down 8.07% over the past year but showing a 5.04% gain over 90 days and trading at a 4% discount to the average analyst target, is this weakness setting up a potential opportunity, or is the market already fully reflecting expectations for future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3.7% Undervalued

Compared with the last close at US$48.95, the most followed narrative pegs Molson Coors Beverage’s fair value slightly higher at about US$50.81, suggesting a small valuation gap that hinges on how its earnings power evolves.

Investments in supply chain efficiency, productivity improvements, and cost optimization are expected to offset recent headwinds (e.g., aluminum costs, volume deleverage), positioning Molson Coors for EBITDA and net margin improvement as input costs normalize and contract brewing headwinds fade.

Curious what earnings path and margin rebuild sit behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on specific revenue, profitability, and future P/E assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $50.81 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on U.S. beer volumes stabilizing and on input cost swings, especially aluminum, not eroding margins more than analysts currently build in.

Build Your Own Molson Coors Beverage Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view, or simply prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Molson Coors Beverage research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.