One thing we could say about the analysts on Aquestive Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AQST) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 18% to US$4.10 in the past 7 days. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Aquestive Therapeutics' nine analysts is for revenues of US$48m in 2026, which would reflect a decent 9.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.58 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$64m and losses of US$0.59 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

Analysts lifted their price target 6.9% to US$9.22 per share, with reduced revenue estimates seemingly not expected to have a long-term impact on the intrinsic value of the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aquestive Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.4% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 8.8% per year. Aquestive Therapeutics is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

There was also a drop in their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider market. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with analysts apparently feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to next year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Aquestive Therapeutics going forwards.

That said, the analysts might have good reason to be negative on Aquestive Therapeutics, given major dilution from new stock issuance in the past year. Learn more, and discover the 1 other flag we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.