The analysts covering Kura Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:KURA) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Kura Oncology from its 14 analysts is for revenues of US$139m in 2026 which, if met, would be a sizeable 34% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.31 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$158m and losses of US$3.06 per share in 2026. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$32.45, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Kura Oncology's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 26% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 96% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kura Oncology's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Kura Oncology after today.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kura Oncology going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.