• In recent days, Novavax drew fresh attention as investors reacted to softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data and growing interest in its protein-based vaccine platform as an alternative to mRNA technologies.
• This combination of macroeconomic optimism and focus on Novavax’s differentiated vaccine approach has highlighted the company’s role as a higher-risk, biotech underdog in a competitive vaccine landscape.
• Against this backdrop of easing inflation and renewed interest in its vaccine technology, we’ll explore how the news could reshape Novavax’s investment narrative.

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Novavax Investment Narrative Recap

To own Novavax, you have to believe its protein based vaccines and Matrix M adjuvant can earn a durable place alongside bigger mRNA players, and that partner driven royalties and milestones will support the business despite earnings and revenue being forecast to decline over the next few years. The recent inflation driven share move and modest EPS estimate revisions do not materially change the near term focus on COVID, combo and flu uptake, or the key risk of dependence on a narrow vaccine portfolio.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the new license and option agreement with Pfizer, which brings an upfront US$30 million payment in Q1 2026 and potential follow on economics tied to Matrix M use in one or two infectious disease areas. In the context of short term catalysts, this underscores how much of the Novavax story now rests on external partners turning its adjuvant platform into recurring royalty and supply revenue, rather than on standalone product sales alone.

Yet behind the excitement, investors should be aware of how quickly revenues could shrink if vaccine demand softens and partner driven milestones...

Novavax's narrative projects $348.5 million revenue and $55.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Novavax's forecasts yield a $13.11 fair value, a 51% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While recent gains and partner news hint at upside, the most pessimistic analysts once modeled revenue falling about 54% a year and earnings dropping from roughly US$422.8 million, so you should recognize how sharply opinions can diverge and consider whether fresh data could shift either view.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Novavax - why the stock might be worth 24% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Novavax Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Novavax research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Novavax research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Novavax's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.