Good morning,
 
US equity markets snapped a four-week losing streak helped by a late Friday bounce after President Trump said there would be some “flexibility” in regard to the implementation of tariffs and record flows into the close. Friday was triple witch expiration, and the quarterly index rebalances and was the heaviest trading day in history with 4.7B shares and $263B of notional value trading on the NYSE. A bounce in the mega-cap tech stocks helped the S&P 500 close the session marginally higher and up 0.5% for the week. There is some follow through this morning after press reports have suggested that tariffs will be more “targeted” focused on the 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the US. In addition, according to reports the sector-tariffs on autos, semis and pharmaceutical are not expected to be announced on April 2 ^nd.  S&P 500 futures are currently up 1.2% which will leave the cash index just above last week’s high and under its 200d ma. Russell 2k futures are currently up ~1.6%.
 
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight. The Nikkei fell modestly after both manufacturing and services PMIs came in below estimates. Indices in Hong Kong and China traded modestly higher. India outperformed up 1.4% despite mixed PMIs. PMIs in Europe were also mixed with manufacturing continuing to show some improvement though services PMI came in below estimates approaching the demarcation line of growth.  Local markets opened higher but have pulled back currently trading modestly lower with staples and healthcare moving lower. The Euro was modestly higher overnight but also pulled back to unchanged over the last couple of hours. Local yields are a touch higher.
 
In the US, after the open S&P Global Flash PMIs will be released. Recall last month services fell sharply which kicked off some of the growth concerns however, that was not confirmed by the ISM services report. This afternoon Fed Bostic and Barr will be speaking. Outside of tariffs the other story getting some attention this weekend were reported that tax revenue collected by the IRS is set to fall by >10% which could complicate the reconciliation process. Treasury yields are up ~4bps. The USD index has reversed overnight lows trading around unchanged ~$103.75.
 
Commodities are mostly higher. ICE Brent is extending recent gains up ~0.5% to ~$72.50 as Ukraine peace negotiations continue and the US steps up sanctions on Iranian oil. Natural gas in Europe/US is trading modestly lower. Metals are modestly higher but off the best levels. Ag commodities are pulling back. Crypto currencies are moving higher in the risk on environment with Bitcoin up ~3.5% at ~87.3k, breaking above its 20d ma (~85k) a close above that level would be the first since January.
 
With a ton of options rolling off the pad it will be interesting to see if we continue to see some vol compression. The VIX closed below 20 last week for the first time since February. Coming into today the intra-day range on the S&P 500 has exceeded 1% for 22 consecutive sessions a streak not seen since the spring of 2022 when inflation was peaking. There is a little flurry of a merger Monday with James Hardie and The Azek Company merging and Dunn & Bradstreet being taken private.  
 
Global Markets
Asia:
Japan's Nikkei: -0.2%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.9%
China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
India's Sensex: +1.4%
South Korea's Kospi: -0.4%
Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH
Europe:
STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
Germany's DAX: -0.2%
U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%
France's CAC 40: -0.2%
Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1%
 
Sectors/Other Asset Classes:
Government Yields

• US 2yr +4bps to 4.00%, 5yr +4bps to 4.06%, 10yr +4bps to 4.30%, 30yr +4bps to 4.63%
• USD index: -$0.02 to $103.73
• Oil prices - ICE Brent: +0.2% to $72.29, WTI: +0.2% to $68.41, Nat Gas: -0.6% to $3.96
• Gold: +0.2% to $3,028.50, Silver: +0.5% to $33.65, Copper: +0.6% to $5.15
• Wheat: -1.3% to $5.81, Corn: -0.4% to $4.62, Soybeans: -0.3% to $10.07, Cotton: +0.0% to $0.65
• VIX: -0.43 to 18.85
• Bitcoin: +3.5% to ~87.3k

Economic Data:

• US:
  • Chicago Fed: 0.18 prior -0.08
  • 9:45 Composite PMI: prior 51.6
    • Manufacturing PMI: vs. 51.8 cons,. prior 52.7
    • Services PMI: vs. 50.8 cons., prior 51
  • Fed Speakers: Bostic, Barr
• Global
• Japan Composite PMI: 48.5 prior 52
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 vs. 49.2 cons,. prior 49
  • Japan Services PMI: 49.5 vs. 52.9 prior 53.7
• India Composite PMI: 58.6 cons. prior 58.8
  • India Manufacturing PMI: 57.6 prior 56.3
  • India Services PMI: 57.7 prior 59
• EU Composite PMI: 50.4 vs. 50.8 cons. prior 50.2
  • EU Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 vs. 48.2 cons,. prior 47.6
  • EU Services PMI: 50.4 vs. 51 prior 50.6
• GERMANY Composite PMI: 50.9 vs. 51 cons. prior 50.4
  • GERMANY Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 vs. 47 cons,. prior 46.5
  • GERMANY Services PMI: 50.2 vs. 51.6 prior 51.1
• UK Composite PMI: 52 vs. 50.3 cons. prior 50.5
  • UK Manufacturing PMI: 44.6 vs. 46.4 cons,. prior 46.9
  • UK Services PMI: 53.2 vs. 50.9 prior 51